The European parcel logistics market is facing a new phase of consolidation. Whilst parcel volumes in most markets are now growing at only low single-digit rates per year, costs and demands on infrastructure and efficiency are rising significantly. “Growth alone is no longer enough to sustain business models,” says Rico Back, Managing Partner at SKR Beteiligungs AG. “In future, competition will be decided by scale, network effects and infrastructure.”
During the pandemic, many parcel markets recorded exceptionally high, double-digit growth rates. Since 2022, this momentum has normalised significantly. In Germany, the parcel market is now growing only moderately: for 2025, the industry association BPEX expects a rise in parcel volumes of around two per cent.
The strong volume growth had long masked rising costs. With the normalisation, competitive conditions are now changing fundamentally: efficiency, network density and reach are coming to the fore.
“Many providers are now realising that their business model is no longer viable under the new market conditions,” says Rico Back. “What still worked in an environment of strong growth is now coming under pressure – because rising costs and higher demands can no longer be offset.”
Wave of M&A reveals new market logic
Since 2025, different types of business deals – from mergers and acquisitions to joint ventures – have started to form a clear pattern in the European parcel market:
- Evri merges with DHL eCommerce UK (October 2025)
- FedEx and Advent announce a stake in InPost (February 2026)
- DHL eCommerce and CTT have announced a joint venture on the Iberian Peninsula (closing expected in May 2026)
“These are not isolated cases,” says Rico Back. “Many companies are currently consolidating because the pressure is mounting. Size is thus increasingly becoming a prerequisite for profitability – no longer merely a result of it.”
Why the market is consolidating now
Several factors are driving consolidation. The development of infrastructure such as parcel stations, hubs and automated networks is so capital-intensive that many providers can barely finance it on their own. At the same time, regulatory requirements, digitalisation and fleet modernisation are driving up fixed costs – and making economies of scale a decisive competitive factor.
Platforms such as Amazon are creating additional pressure by further expanding their delivery structures and increasingly handling volumes themselves. At the same time, shipment volumes are growing due to new e-commerce platforms such as Temu or Shein – though often at significantly lower margins and with higher operational demands. For many providers, this means that while volumes are rising, profitability is not.
“Without scale, it is becoming almost impossible to meet the growing demands on infrastructure, technology and efficiency in a cost-effective manner,” says Rico Back. “For many providers, scaling up is therefore becoming the decisive factor in remaining competitive.”
Providers lacking sufficient scale are coming under pressure
Providers lacking sufficient scale and network coverage, in particular, are increasingly finding themselves in a difficult position: they are too large for specialised niches, but too small to realise genuine economies of scale.
“For many of these providers, the question is no longer whether they want to grow – but whether they can grow at all under the current conditions,” says Rico Back.
The shape of the market is being determined now
SKR believes that this development is only just beginning. The coming years are likely to be characterised by further mergers, acquisitions and strategic partnerships. “Providers that are unable to scale sufficiently or position themselves clearly in the market are coming under particular pressure,” says Rico Back. “In the end, those that prevail will be those that either have scale – or a clear profile.”
